Explanation: India has more nuclear weapons than Pakistan, but China is ahead

New Delhi:

In 2023, the global nuclear landscape was characterized by significant developments among nine nuclear-armed states: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

According to a Report According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), each of these countries continues to modernize their nuclear capabilities, with the deployment of several new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapons systems.

A nuclear weapon state

United States

The United States remains an important player in the global nuclear field. As of January 2024, the US nuclear arsenal had 5,044 warheads, a significant portion of which were deployed on ballistic missiles and aircraft. The United States continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, focusing on increasing the capability and reliability of its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers.

Russia

Russia, along with the United States, possess most of the world's nuclear weapons. Despite some fluctuations, Russia's military stockpile has remained relatively stable at 5,580. In 2023, Russia deployed an additional 36 warheads, reflecting its ongoing emphasis on nuclear deterrence.

UK

The United Kingdom announced a significant shift in its nuclear policy with plans to raise its warhead stockpile limit from 225 to 260 in 2023. Although the UK did not expand its arsenal that year, the decision showed its commitment to maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent. The UK has also stopped publicly disclosing certain nuclear quantities.

France

France continues to develop and upgrade its nuclear capabilities, including the development of a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-powered cruise missile.

China

China's nuclear arsenal grew the fastest among the nuclear-weapon states, increasing from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. This expansion is part of China's larger strategy to increase its nuclear deterrent. For the first time, China is believed to have placed some warheads on high operational alert. Estimates suggest that China may have as many ICBMs as the US or Russia by the end of the decade, although its overall stockpile will remain small.

India

India has expanded its nuclear arsenal somewhat, focusing on developing new delivery systems. While Pakistan remains the primary target of India's nuclear deterrent, the emphasis is on long-range weapons capable of reaching China. India's stockpile of nuclear warheads in January 2024 was estimated at 172. According to the SIPRI report, India was the world's top arms importer, growing by 4.7 percent between 2014-18 and 2019-23.

Pakistan

Pakistan, with an estimated 170 stockpiled warheads, continues to develop its nuclear delivery system. Ongoing hostilities with India drive Pakistan's nuclear strategy, with both countries pursuing the ability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles. Pakistan's nuclear posture is a central component of its national security strategy.

North Korea

By January 2024, North Korea had assembled approximately 50 warheads and possessed sufficient disintegrating components for up to 90. North Korea's nuclear ambitions continue to destabilize regional security dynamics as its tensions with neighboring South Korea keep the region on edge.

Israel

Israel, which does not officially acknowledge its nuclear arsenal, is believed to be modernizing its capabilities. Upgrades to its plutonium production reactor at Dimona, 144 kilometers from Jerusalem, suggest ongoing efforts to improve its nuclear deterrent.

China-India-Pakistan equation

The dynamic between China, India and Pakistan is crucial for regional and global security. According to a ORF reports, India was the first country to propose a nuclear test ban treaty and stop production of materials for nuclear weapons. India signed and ratified the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963, which banned nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, space and underwater.

However, discriminatory politics surrounding the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have created challenges. Despite conducting nuclear tests in 1998, India maintained its commitment to the no-first-use (NFU) principle, reiterating this position in the 1999 draft nuclear doctrine and again in 2003.

In 1994, India offered Pakistan a nuclear non-first use treaty. Unfortunately, no agreement could be reached due to regional and historical tensions between the two countries.

Moving east, India and China, both nuclear-armed, have volatile relations due to long-standing border disputes dating back to the 1950s. While trade between these countries suggests potential mutual benefits, unresolved border issues have hampered bilateral relations.

NATO and nuclear sharing

NATO's nuclear sharing arrangement includes the deployment of US B-61 nuclear bombs in Europe, which remain in US custody and control. In the event of conflict, these weapons would be delivered by dual-capable aircraft (DCA) from NATO member states, subject to political approval from the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) and the approval of the US President and UK Prime Minister.

NATO's nuclear sharing ensures that the benefits, responsibilities and risks of nuclear deterrence are distributed across the Alliance.

Nuclear diplomacy

The United Nations plays an important role in promoting nuclear disarmament. The suspension of the New START treaty – a nuclear arms reduction agreement between Russia and the US – and ongoing challenges to arms control by Russia highlight the fragile state of nuclear diplomacy. Despite these obstacles, efforts continue within the UN framework to counter the nuclear threat and promote disarmament.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), although not yet in force, remains a key tool in UN efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation. Despite Russia's withdrawal from ratifying the treaty, it continues to participate in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “the United States and Russia have fundamentally different views on when America should pursue control and what the purpose of arms control should be in the current strategic environment.” “While the U.S. position remains that cooperation to manage the world's two largest nuclear arsenals is in the best interests of the international system, Moscow believes that current U.S. efforts to reimpose arms control are part of a larger effort to leverage Russia's hold on Ukraine.”

The deteriorating global security environment, particularly due to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, continues to pose significant challenges to nuclear diplomacy.