In Russia, vehicles are expensive but soldiers are cheap—and that's why the Battle of Vovchansk is turning into an infantry massacre.

In the five weeks since Russia's northern invasion of Ukraine, Vovchansk and its surrounding battlefields — the fighting locations just south of the Russia-Ukraine border — have become extremely dangerous for Russian armored vehicles.

So Russian infantry marched into battle on foot—and Ukrainian drone and artillery fire killed in large numbers.

Russian casualties this spring and summer — both wounded and killed — are not for nothing. The total number of casualties may now exceed half a million. Ukraine's own casualties are much lower.

Conversely, this bloodbath does not signal the imminent end of the larger war. The Kremlin recruits about 30,000 fresh troops every month, and rushes through damning training—just enough to do good monthly damage.

So even as Russians die in shocking numbers in Bovchansk and other contested towns, the Russian army continues to replenish existing units and even form new ones. “They are preparing new forces for future progress,” explained Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian Marine Corps drone operator supporting the Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade fighting in Vovchansk.

Vovchansk was the first major target of Russia's northern offensive, which began on May 10 in a series of simultaneous attacks on Ukraine's northern border with Russia. But the Russian Northern Army, thousands of troops strong, had not crossed the industrial town four miles south of the border.

Several Ukrainian brigades, including the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, rushed north to meet the Russians. Rearmed with American weapons, the Ukrainians fought the Russians along the streets, through buildings—and halted their advance by late May.

Today, Bovchansk is an infantry killing field, and the Russians are doing most of the killing. “The Russians are using only infantry without armored vehicles,” wrote Kriegsforscher.

It's not as if the Russian military doesn't have some vehicles, such as the American-made Stryker of the Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, optimized for chaotic urban warfare. The Russian BTR-82 wheeled armored personnel carriers are similar to the wheeled Stryker, although less sophisticated.

Russia has “armored vehicles… that are suitable for urban warfare (at least for (medical) evacuation),” noted Kriegsforscher. “But they don't.”

“Their choice to use infantry without armor is strange,” wrote Kriegsforscher. Indeed, it makes perverse sense – especially for Russian commanders who do not value the lives of their soldiers very highly.

In a grueling 28 months of fighting, Russia's military has lost nearly 4,000 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles — the two types of armored vehicles that carry troops into battle. According to Oryx analysts, it destroys about 150 Russian APCs and heavy IFVs per month. Confirmed.

Ukraine's losses are much lower: Close to a thousand APCs and IFVs since Russia expanded its war against Ukraine in February 2022. That's about 30 cars per month.

The rate of Russian losses is increasing rapidly. With new shipments of American-made artillery shells, as well as expanding production of explosive first-person-view drones, Ukrainian brigades finally have the firepower needed to hit every Russian vehicle they spot on their surveillance drones — a big change from this spring, when Ukrainians often used Russian The vehicles could be seen but had nothing to shoot at.

In May, Russian vehicle losses rose to a staggering 288 APCs and IFVs, according to Andrew Perpetua, an analyst measuring vehicle losses in Ukraine. “It's just what we can see and count,” Perpetua said emphasis.

The problem for Russia is that its industry can only produce a thousand or so APCs and IFVs a year or regenerate them from long-term storage. If it loses them at the current rate, the Army will need a quarter of the vehicles a year.

It is clear that Russian commanders are under increasing pressure to preserve their heavily armored vehicles. More Russian assault groups ride into battle on motorcycles or all-terrain vehicles that are little better than heavy-duty golf carts. And those are the lucky bunch who don't have any vehicles.

Even the support units are parking in favor of their heavy vehicles, like Kamaz trucks, ATVs “In war, it's impossible to deliver on a Kamaz truck—like any other vehicle,” a Russian soldier said Note that In a video translated by Estonian analyst War.

ATVs are definitely weaker. The video shows the soldier's heavily mangled ATV — the scar of a Ukrainian strike that he said killed three officers in the flimsy vehicle. But for many Russian commanders, losing a $19,000 ATV is preferable to losing a $100,000 Kamaz truck—or an APC or IFV that could cost millions of dollars.

And it is better to lose the infantry than to lose any Vehicles while infantry are abundant and vehicles increasingly scarce.

This lack of heavy vehicles may explain why a Russian infantry attack on central Bovchansk over the weekend ended with 400 Russians surrounded at a chemical plant and bombed by the Ukrainian Air Force.

Another Ukrainian drone operator said, “There is no possibility of the Russians evacuating or reinforcing here.” Report-Probably because Russian forces in Bovchansk lack heavy vehicles that can penetrate the encircled troops. Or, if it has vehicles, it's not willing to risk them just to save a few hundred soldiers.

Source:

1. Ukrainian Pravda: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7458530/

2. Kriegsforscher: https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1803091255045325144

3. Oryx: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

4. Andrew Perpetua: https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1786700159667110276

5. War Translated: