Putin and Kim Jong Un to meet in North Korea, a supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine

SEOUL, South Korea – Russian President Vladimir Putin is heading to North Korea this week for a summit with leader Kim Jong Un.

Their upcoming meeting, the second in nine months, is a sign of the deepening of the two countries' political and military partnership built on Russia's war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin and North Korean state media announced that Putin would arrive on a two-day state visit starting Tuesday, with the two leaders expected to meet on Wednesday. It will be Putin's first visit to North Korea since 2000 and the first by a head of state since the country closed its borders in 2020.

Putin and Kim last met in September in Russia's Far East, where Putin showed Kim around the Vostochny spaceport and promised to help develop North Korea's satellites.

Pyongyang and Moscow cooperate on Ukraine

North Korea has consistently supported Russia since the first days of the war in Ukraine, voting against a UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion and joining Russia in recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states.

The United States and South Korea suspect North Korea is also supplying Russia with large quantities of artillery shells and other munitions for use against Ukraine, a claim North Korea denies.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said this recently the interview That North Korea could send 5 million shells and dozens of ballistic missiles to Russia.

Shin is there said That Russia, in return, eased North Korea's economic hardship by sending containers full of food and other aid.

Russia has also returned Pyongyang with political favors, voting at the UN Security Council in March to disband the North Korea sanctions monitoring panel.

Over the past year, the two increasingly isolated countries have engaged in a flurry of bilateral diplomatic and cultural exchanges, including visits by North Korea's foreign minister and Russia's defense minister. At the same time Kim Jong Un made up Frequent presence at weapons factories and test sites.

In a letter published by North Korean officials, Dr Rodong Sinmun Newspapers ahead of his visit, Putin praised North Korea for its support of Russia's war effort and identified the two countries as fighting a similar battle against the United States and its allies.

He pledged that the two countries would “develop alternative trade and settlement mechanisms not controlled by the West” and “build an equal and indivisible security architecture in Eurasia” and increase people-to-people exchanges.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide said The leaders could sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that would replace previous bilateral agreements.

Why bilateral relations are not expected to expand

But North Korea watchers in South Korea and the United States are skeptical that relations will expand further from the current deal.

“The upcoming visit will likely be a form of political lip service,” said Cho Han-bum, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government think tank in Seoul. That could help Putin maintain Kim Jong Un's support during a protracted war, while boosting Kim's status at home and abroad, he said.

“Once the war in Ukraine is over, North Korea will no longer be important to Russia,” Cho said.

Trade between Russia and North Korea is minimal compared to Russia's trade with South Korea or North Korea's trade with China.

Relations with South Korea will make Russia wary of making major offers to the North, such as the transfer of advanced military technology or mutual defense agreements. Analysis by the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank affiliated with South Korea's top intelligence agency.

Even if the two countries agree to high-level military cooperation, they will be reluctant to formalize or announce it, said Jenny Towne, director of the Korea program at the Stimson Center, a foreign affairs think tank in Washington, DC.

Not only are many of North Korea's military activities subject to sanctions, but the country emphasizes self-reliance and avoids dependence on other countries.

How China figures in North Korea-Russia relations

Still, Russia and North Korea may see each other's value as strategic partners in opposition to the U.S.-led world order, especially given China's elusiveness, Towne said.

“Russia is willing to be bold, trying to promote the system,” he said, “but China is still trying to be part of that system and try to have some governance role in that system.”

China held high-level talks with South Korea Tuesday, hours before Putin's expected arrival in Pyongyang. And the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea held a trilateral summit last month for the first time in more than four years.

“China still talks about denuclearization while the Russians seem to have generally accepted North Korea as a nuclear-armed nation,” Town added.

in a the interview Speaking to Russian state media in March, Putin said North Korea “has its own nuclear umbrella.”

With an intensifying arms race and eroding international norms, Towne said it will be much harder for the US and its allies to bring North Korea back into denuclearization talks.