China to see largest billionaire exodus in 2024 as more head to US

NEW YORK — China saw the largest exodus of the world's wealthiest people last year and is expected to see a record exodus of 15,200 in 2024, further pushing its economy, a new report says.

Uncertainty about China's economic trajectory and geopolitical tensions are top of mind for many Chinese billionaires, in dollar terms, who choose to leave their country, according to a report by investment migration firm Henley & Partners. The United States, China's international arch-rival, stands out as the top destination, according to researchers.

China saw 13,800 high-net-worth individuals leave last year, mostly to the United States, Canada and Singapore, the agency found. Such individuals, briefly defined as HNWIs, have at least $1 million in assets.

Henley & Partners said it was difficult to know how much wealth was taken with the emigrants, but “HNWIs in our experience typically leave with between $30 million and $1 billion in assets,” said Andrew Amwells, head of research. At New World Wealth, a wealth intelligence firm that collaborated with Henley and Partners on the report

A massive exodus of wealthy Chinese could add pressure to the country's fragile economy. A chronic property crisis has sunk big developers and badly damaged the country's wealth, while weighing on debt-laden local governments. Earlier this year the International Monetary Fund said China faced “high uncertainty” due to the real estate turmoil. Fitch Ratings downgraded China's sovereign credit outlook to negative in April, following a similar move by Moody's Investors Service last December.

Wealthy Chinese halted efforts to move themselves and their fortunes offshore during the COVID-19 pandemic, but quickly resumed their exodus after strict restrictions on travel were lifted.

The report does not specify the exact number of immigrants to the United States or the reasons for those who moved there.

Immigration consultants and analysts have noted a sharp increase in inquiries from Chinese people, both rich and middle-class, to move to Japan. “Japan's lifestyle is very attractive with beautiful public gardens and golf courses, and it is ranked among the safest countries in the world according to the Global Peace Index,” says Amoils.

Singapore has traditionally attracted affluent Chinese due to its proximity to China, cultural links and use of the Mandarin language. But the city-state has increased scrutiny of domestic Chinese assets. Singapore recently denied two Chinese men permission to set up a family office, a common way to acquire citizenship, following a money laundering scandal.

The UAE remains the most attractive destination for the world's wealthy, with zero income tax, luxury lifestyles and “golden visas” for investors, the investment immigration body said.

As elsewhere seeing an outflow, Hong Kong lost nearly 500 high-net-worth individuals last year, amid growing concerns about independence as authorities crack down on dissent. Henley and Partners does not expect much change in the trend this year.

The UK is expected to see the second largest net loss this year in 2024 after China, at 9,500.

South Korea is projected to see a net outflow of 1,200, while Taiwan is forecast to lose 400. Hannah White, CEO of the Institute for Government, a think tank in London who provided analysis of the report, partly attributed the flow to uncertainty over the US election. in November and the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency. His isolationist rhetoric has raised concerns that his administration may be less likely to defend Taiwan in a military crisis with China or support South Korea in a contingency with North Korea.

128,000 millionaires are expected to move globally in 2024, a record for wealth transfers, said Dominik Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners.

“As the world grapples with a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and social upheaval, millionaires are voting with their feet in record numbers,” Volek said. “In many respects, this great millionaire migration is a leading indicator, signaling a profound shift in the global landscape and tectonic plates of wealth and power, with far-reaching implications for the future trajectory of the nations they leave behind. Make their new homes.”