Final blow to Chinese 'neutrality' in Ukraine war

Meanwhile, Beijing has also drawn to the concept of “indivisible security”, which holds that nations should not enhance their security at the expense of others – a doctrine promoted by Moscow for decades, and a criticism aimed at NATO activities. before the attack, China supported the idea in a joint statement with Russia. But since then, it has been included in the Global Security Initiative – a cornerstone of Chinese President Xi Jinping's vision for international relations – suggesting it will enjoy a more prominent role in Chinese foreign policy.

The pair also expressed disdain for Western sanctions – including those imposed on Russia. Chinese officials vehemently oppose AmericaIllegal unilateral ban“And saying they won't comply with them. And Xi has not only passively resisted attempts to isolate Russia, providing the country with an economic lifeline, he has also shown he is willing to bear both reputational and economic costs to support his neighbor.

Since 2022, China's leaders have faced a serious Economic recessionSudden and inexplicable Removal of two cabinet ministers and growing Western resistance towards its global ambitions. The war has exacerbated these challenges as China's relations with Europe have been tarnished by Beijing's support for Moscow. And while China has been wary of openly flouting Western sanctions, several Chinese companies have recently fallen victim limitations To trade with Russian counterparts.

But that's a sacrifice Xi seems willing to make. Indeed, as the West has increased its demands on China, its ties to Russia seem to have only strengthened. Trade and defense exchanges have increased significantly, while the Russian people seem to have become even more so positively settled Also towards China.

As long as China maintains its pro-Russian stance, this will be difficult to reverse. Chinese companies have already adapted their operations to expand trade relations with Russia. Over time, this structural change will become harder and more expensive to undo. Moreover, there is Xi's support for Putin Personal and highly publicized. And since China's pro-Russian policies do not enjoy universal support among Chinese intellectuals, a policy reversal could be seen as a concession to its critics.

After his meeting with Xi in April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that the two leaders had “agreed toclosely coordinatedRegarding holding a peace conference on Ukraine. And he made it clear that he thinks “China's words carry weight in Russia“

It is true that a mediator does not have to be completely neutral to be successful. With decisive leverage over one or both conflicting parties, it can make compromises that would otherwise be impossible. For such efforts to be successful, however, said mediator must be willing to lean on the dependent parties in ways that may significantly strain his relationship with them. So far, Xi has shown no signs of being willing to do so — and the chances of that seem to be receding.

European leaders are right to maintain a dialogue with China and continue to demand that Xi use his leverage. But until China does, allowing Beijing to take a leading role in the peace process risks legitimizing aggression.