Following Trump’s Military Success in Venezuela, Cuba’s Economy Is in ‘Freefall’
According to various sources, Cuba is currently facing the most severe economic crisis in the 67-year span of its communist regime. While the nation has dealt with intermittent mass migration, food shortages, and social discontent in previous decades, never before have Cubans witnessed such an extensive breakdown of the social support system that the country’s leaders — beginning with Fidel Castro — once valued. “I, who was born there, I, who lives there, and I’ll tell you: It’s never been as bad as it is now, because many factors have come together,” expressed Omar Everleny Pérez, 64, an economist residing in Havana. As officials from the Trump administration celebrate their recent military triumph in Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro was apprehended and the U.S. laid claim to the South American territory, attention has shifted to Cuba, which maintained a close bond with the imprisoned leader and heavily depended on the oil supplies he sent. Regarding Cuba, “It’s going down for the count,” Mr. Trump remarked on Sunday, downplaying the need for military intervention there, asserting that the government would likely collapse imminently.
Odalis Reyes observes the signs of Cuba’s deterioration firsthand. From the view in her cramped living room, Ms. Reyes, a seamstress in Old Havana, gazes at a remnant of the nation’s outdated past, the rusting carcass of an electric power facility that once supplied power to her impoverished neighborhood on the edge of Havana’s tourist district. Now, it stands as a constant reminder of the ongoing blackouts. “Yes, many hours without electricity, many, many — 14, 15 hours,” noted Ms. Reyes, 56. “Oh, that terrifies you, it terrifies you, because food — which this is the hardest thing — you’re afraid it will spoil.” “We don’t even know how we’re going to get by anymore,” she continued. “We’re like human robots, humanoids.” In past years, Cubans voiced complaints because the monthly rations of rice, beans, and other essentials they received lasted merely 10 days. Presently, the ration cards have essentially become worthless due to the absence of food in government stores.
To purchase gasoline, individuals must utilize an app to schedule an appointment — at least three weeks in advance. One Havana resident mentioned he signed up for the queue three months ago and is currently No. 5,052 in line. The gasoline scarcity has led to irregular trash collection, resulting in outbreaks of mosquito-spread diseases such as dengue and chikungunya. Finding medicines has become nearly impossible without assistance from relatives abroad. The blackouts have intensified an already dire situation, especially in provinces beyond the capital, which may endure up to 20 hours each day without electricity. “It’s dark, people are sick, and they don’t have medicine,” stated Mr. Pérez, the economist.
The economic landscape in Cuba has always been challenging. It was particularly dire during the mid-1990s, an era referred to as the “special period,” which followed the Soviet Union’s collapse that had supported Cuba’s economy. The Cuban government has consistently attributed its economic struggles to a long-standing U.S. trade embargo, which it claims stifles its ability to engage in global trade and acquire much-needed finances. Government officials argue that economic sanctions imposed by Republican administrations, which do not cover food and medicine, have exacerbated the situation. “Correcting distortions and reviving the economy is not a slogan,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel declared in a recent speech. “It is a concrete battle for stability in everyday life, so that wages are sufficient, so that there is food on the table, so that blackouts end, so that transportation is revived, so that schools, hospitals and basic services function with the quality we deserve.” According to the president, by the conclusion of the third quarter last year, the country’s gross domestic product had dropped by over 4 percent, inflation was surging, and the distribution of rationed food was not being fulfilled.
Mr. Díaz-Canel reiterated the administration’s longstanding objectives: prioritize food production and enhance the efficiency of state-operated enterprises. Experts suggest that the impact of Mr. Maduro’s fall on Cuba remains uncertain, as the Trump administration tightens its grip on Venezuela’s oil sector. When Hugo Chávez held the presidency, he provided Cuba with about 90,000 barrels of oil daily. By the final quarter of 2025, Cuba obtained only 35,000 barrels. The resulting power shortages have adversely affected industries such as nickel production, since factories are inactive without electricity. Another vital sector, tourism, has also faced challenges in recent years. Before the Covid pandemic, approximately four million tourists visited Cuba annually; economists assert that this number has struggled to reach two million.
Amid these hardships, some individuals are advocating for a greater presence of private enterprises. Emilio Interián Rodríguez, a Cuban lawmaker who leads an agricultural cooperative, delivered a sharp address advocating for agricultural reforms and increased private initiatives. He made this statement during a session of the National Assembly — where pro-government sentiments typically dominate. Private entrepreneurs, he proclaimed, have outperformed state companies. “Thanks to micro, small and medium enterprises, today we have more things, and thanks to micro, small, and medium enterprises today we are achieving results in many areas that we had never seen before,” he stated. Experts concur that while U.S. policies have harmed Cuba, inadequate planning and mismanagement also contribute to the nation’s economic issues. Efforts to permit private businesses have been stymied by burdensome regulations. The private enterprises, referred to as MiPyMEs, were legalized in 2021 and have proven to be a crucial support for Cuba, as noted by Mr. Pérez and other residents.
Some private shops bear resemblance to supermarket chains in the United States, offering products from Goya to Philadelphia cream cheese. However, the prices in these private markets are exorbitant, especially for individuals earning salaries in the local currency. A standard monthly pension amounts to 3,000 pesos, which is under $7, whereas a carton of 30 eggs costs 3,600 pesos — roughly $8. “There is food, and plenty of it, but the prices are incredible,” remarked Mr. Pérez. “Nobody with a salary, not even a doctor, can hardly buy in those stores.” Approximately one-third of Cubans receive financial assistance from abroad, and some generate income in the private sector. Nonetheless, about a third of the population, particularly retirees, are living in poverty, according to Mr. Pérez. Difficult living conditions sparked spontaneous large-scale protests in 2021, but a severe government crackdown suppressed these demonstrations.
Cuba’s financial disintegration has prompted an extraordinary wave of emigration — around 2.75 million Cubans have left the nation since 2020, as per Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban demographer. While the official population stands at approximately 9.7 million, Mr. Albizu-Campos suggests that a more accurate figure would be about 8.25 million. Some individuals have resorted to cooking with firewood. The country is generating 25 percent less electricity than it did in 2019, reported Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist currently a fellow at American University. Cuba’s economy has experienced a decline for three consecutive years, he noted. “The domestic economy,” Mr. Torres stated, “is in a free fall.” Yoan Nazabal, 32, a bartender and taxi operator in Havana, shared that his wife had a cesarean section six months ago and was shocked by what they had to bring to the hospital. “We had to bring our own catheter to the hospital!” he exclaimed. “Everyone mentions how wonderful our medical system is, and how it is free — and historically, it has been. Our doctors are exceptional. But they lack resources to perform their duties effectively.” Hannah Berkeley Cohen contributed reporting from Miami.
Published: 2026-01-07 20:24:00
source: www.nytimes.com
