The Numbers Game: Title Frontrunners Arsenal Aim for a Strong Start to 2026
Arsenal made a strong declaration of their championship ambitions on Tuesday, concluding 2025 with a decisive 4-1 victory against Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners also received a further advantage before their opening match of 2026, as Sunderland managed to secure a goalless draw with Manchester City on New Year’s Day. The Opta supercomputer currently estimates Arsenal’s likelihood of securing the Premier League title at 79%, although Mikel Arteta’s squad has previously found themselves in similar positions. Since last winning the title in 2004, Arsenal has been unable to clinch the championship after leading at New Year’s on five occasions. Arteta knows the importance of reinforcing Tuesday’s notable victory with another favorable outcome before visiting Bournemouth, a team that completed a Premier League double over Arsenal last season. Here, we explore the Opta data to preview Saturday’s late kick-off, highlighting the essential players and narratives to keep an eye on.
What’s Expected?
The Opta supercomputer is firmly backing Arsenal ahead of this match, assigning them a 61.3% chance of victory—the highest for any away Premier League side on matchday 20. In comparison, Bournemouth is only given an 18.4% chance of winning, with 20.2% of Opta’s pre-match simulations predicting a draw. However, Andoni Iraola’s team has a recent track record of causing issues for Arsenal. After winning merely one of their initial 14 encounters against Arsenal (two draws, 11 losses), Bournemouth managed to take all six points from the Gunners last season. The Cherries celebrated a 2-0 victory in the corresponding match at the Vitality Stadium in October 2024, marking Arsenal’s first defeat of the 2024-25 season, and followed it up with a 2-1 win away last May.
Nevertheless, Arsenal were not at the summit of the table entering either of those games, and Bournemouth has suffered 12 losses in their 13 matches against teams starting the day at the top, their lone exception being a 2-1 victory over Man City at home in November 2024. Arsenal has dropped points in just one of their last ten opening Premier League fixtures (seven wins, two draws), losing 2-1 to City at home on New Year’s Day 2022. Meanwhile, Bournemouth—who kicked off 2025 with a 1-0 win against Everton—last won their opening league match in back-to-back calendar years in 2011-2012, where they triumphed over Swindon Town and Wycombe Wanderers, both in League One. Bournemouth finds themselves in poor form, yet they can rely on a solid home record at the Vitality Stadium. After suffering four consecutive home league losses from February to April last year, Bournemouth has lost only two of their last 13 home games (six wins, five draws). This season, they have experienced just one defeat at home, losing 1-0 to Everton in December.
Semenyo to Say Farewell Against Future Title Rivals?
Bournemouth looks poised to part ways with their standout player during the January transfer window. Antoine Semenyo reportedly has a £65m release clause in his contract, and all indications suggest he will soon join Manchester City. However, Iraola made it clear on Friday that the Ghanaian will play this weekend, and it seems unlikely that City will rush negotiations before he faces their title competitors. No player from Bournemouth has accumulated more goals (nine), assists (three), shots (45), touches in the opposition box (86), or passes into the box (96) than Semenyo in the Premier League this season. Emphasizing his significance to Iraola’s approach, only five players league-wide have more open-play shot-ending sequences this season than Semenyo. His total of 87 attacking sequence involvements includes 42 shots, 23 chances created, and 22 contributions to plays that resulted in a shot. Only Bruno Fernandes (116), Dominik Szoboszlai (102), Phil Foden (97), Enzo Fernandez (95), and Bukayo Saka (92) have higher tallies, with Declan Rice tied with Semenyo.
Beyond his contributions in open play, Semenyo was involved in both goals during Bournemouth’s 2-2 draw with Chelsea on Tuesday, marking the Blues’ final match under Enzo Maresca, with both goals originating from long throws initiated by Semenyo. Despite Semenyo’s impressive form, Bournemouth is enduring their longest winless streak in Premier League history, going 10 matches without a victory (five draws, five losses) in a single top-flight season for the first time. To halt their decline down the standings, which has left them just nine points above the relegation zone, they must find an effective replacement for Semenyo. However, that will be a challenge for another time, as on Saturday he may earn some support from City’s fans before officially signing at the Etihad Stadium.
Gabriel and Odegaard Shining After Injury Challenges
The injury front hasn’t been smooth for Arsenal this season, and Arteta confirmed on Friday that defenders Riccardo Calafiori and Cristhian Mosquera won’t participate in this match. Declan Rice is also uncertain after being sidelined during the Villa match due to a knock he picked up while filling in at right-back during a 2-1 victory over Brighton. Gabriel Magalhaes returned to the starting lineup for the first time since November 8 against Villa, scoring the crucial opener with a close-range header from Saka’s corner. The Brazilian has achieved 19 Premier League goals for Arsenal since he began competing in September 2020, making him the highest-scoring defender in that period. His aerial ability was a significant factor behind Arsenal netting 17 goals from corners in the Premier League during 2025—only Manchester United managed more in a single calendar year (18 in 2012). Excluding penalties, Arsenal scored 20 times from set-pieces in 2025 after tallying 21 in 2024. They are the second team to record 20 or more Premier League goals from dead-ball situations in successive years, following Wimbledon from 1993 to 1996.
However, Arsenal’s victory over Villa was about much more than set-pieces, as they arguably delivered one of their most exhilarating performances of the season in the second half. Martin Odegaard was a standout player on Tuesday, showcasing both grit and finesse to dispossess Jadon Sancho, subsequently advancing to the edge of Villa’s area, and setting up Martin Zubimendi to score Arsenal’s second goal. His assist was one of seven line-breaking passes Odegaard delivered throughout the match, more than any other player from Arsenal. The Norway international has faced injury challenges this season, featuring in only 42% of Arsenal’s total Premier League minutes (718 out of a possible 1,710), yet he has still played the most line-breaking passes into the penalty area among all Arsenal players (16).
For Arsenal to sustain their title pursuit, it is crucial that Gabriel and Odegaard continue to shine, and a swift recovery for Rice would also be beneficial.
Players to Watch
Bournemouth – David Brooks
Brooks netted in Bournemouth’s opening Premier League match of 2025, against Everton in January, as well as in their final match of the year at Chelsea. Nonetheless, the Wales international did not score in any of their other fixtures in the competition in the interim. Will he manage to score in consecutive games here?
Arsenal – Leandro Trossard
Trossard leads Arsenal with the most assists (four) and is tied for the most goals (five) in the Premier League this season, having both scored and assisted in the match against Aston Villa. The Belgian also concluded 2025 as the top scorer for Arsenal in the Premier League (10), with the most assists (nine) and total goal contributions (19) in the calendar year.
Published: 2026-01-02 15:58:00
Source: www.soccernews.com
